By 2011 year end, competition will be intense for electric car leadership. The Clean Fleet Report Top 10 Electric Car Makers describes our best guess about the market share leaders for delivered plug-in vehicles on the United States roads in 2011, although not necessarily in order of 2011 installed market share.
Tesla is the first to sell 1,000 electric cars for the U.S. highways. Like its Roadster, the company is going zero to sixty in less than four seconds. In August the company reported its first profits. With $465 million in DOE loans, the company is developing a roomy Model S hatchback that starts at $57,400, about half the price of the Roadster. The Roadster is battery-electric with a 240 mile range; the Model S may have a remarkable electric range of 300 miles per charge.
Nissan (NSANY) will be the first auto maker to put over 10,000 electric cars on U.S. highways. Major cities have already committed to over 10,000 Nissan Leaf and over 10,000 charge stations. Nissan will start taking dealer orders from individuals in the spring of 2010. Nissan plans to make the 5-seat hatchback affordable, but sale and/or lease options have not been finalized. The Nissan Leaf is battery-electric with a 100 mile range per charge.
Toyota (TM) Prius Plug-in Hybrid (PHV) will build on the million car success of Toyota hybrids. At first glance, the PHV looks like another Prius until you spot the J1772 plug for smart charging. Five hundred PHV are now being put into fleet trails from cities to car sharing services. In 2011, U.S. dealer orders should begin. Toyota will initially control costs by only using a 5kWh battery for a 14 mile electric range. In 2012, Toyota will expand its offerings to include a pure battery-electric FT-EV.
General Motors wants to be the plug-in leader with the Chevy Volt, a plug-in hybrid with 40 miles of electric range and up to 500 miles by engaging a small gasoline engine to act as a generator. Bob Lutz says than Chevy hopes to build at least 8,000 in 2011. GM has a complete E-Flex roadmap which envisions added offerings. Converj may become the Cadillac of extend-range electrics. In the future, Opel may offer a diesel plug-in hybrid in Europe. Look for a range versus cost battle with Toyota, as the Volt achieves more electric range by adding to vehicle cost with a 16kWh battery.
Accenture (ACN) forecasts 1.5 million electric vehicles in the United States by 2015. Over 10 million electric vehicles are easily possible by 2020.
Read the complete Clean Fleet Report Top 10 Electric Car Makers John Addison publishes the Clean Fleet Report and speaks at conferences. He is the author of the new book – Save Gas, Save the Planet – now selling at Amazon and other booksellers.