For a project we are working on, we have been analyzing EV and HEV historical sales performance. The numbers are striking.
In the US Hybrids took until their 6th year to achieve 100,000+/year in unit sales and 1% in market share of new vehicles sold.
Electrics and Plugins are currently on pace to do that in 2013 and 2014, 2-3 years ahead of Hybrids.
EVs are currently outpacing hybrid sales growth by a stunning amount in their first three years vs the first 3 years of hybrid cars, and the rate of outperformance has been accelerating each year: EVs are 1.9x, 2.6x, and 3.4x the unit sales level of hybrids over the first 3 years.
Using US historical hybrid vehicle numbers as a benchmark that rate of outperformance would equal nearly 1 mm/year sales by 2018, and 4.2 mm EVs on the road by the end of the decade in 2020.
There are now 4 electric / plugin hybrid car platforms around the 20K+/year mark, which essentially marks the level of a “real” car:
It took hybrids nearly decade to achieve that.
- Ford Energi / Focus Electric (taken as a group)
- Nissan Leaf
- Chevy Volt
That means essentially 4 car companies are already at the $500 mm to $1 Bil/year level in EV revenues.
There are 20+ vehicle platforms behind them, and 2 of those four are in just their first full year, with the Toyota Prius plugin just beginning to rollout broadly.
Virtually every major platform has seen 20-30% price cuts, and seen drastic and rapid sales improvement when they did. The carmarkers have basically found the price level to scale.
The Nissan LEAF achieved it’s 100,000th car sold globally earlier this year. That’s level where the Prius is generally acknowledged to have broken even according to Bill Moore editor of EVWorld.com. To put in perspective, that’s somewhere over $3 Billion in Leaf revenues to date.
Our internal baseline numbers now have Hybrids at 7.4 mm fleet size in 10 years, and EVs/PHEVs at 4.1 mm. That would represent barely 6-7% market share, an extremely moderate share growth rate, and assumes heavy cannibalization of future HEV growth by EVs.
EVs may have been underselling the hype, but they are outselling the reality. Given all of this we would welcome discussion, predictions and inputs on what reasonable expectations on EV growth are.