Only Renewable Electricity Stocks Advance (Week Ending 4/11)
Author: Mark HenwoodSustainable energy stocks followed the broader markets down this week with only Renewable Electricity able to show a gain.
The Solar index followed last week's 14.5% advance with a 4.7% decline. The retreat was broad-based with only 4 stocks increasing and 30 stocks declining. Aloe Solar SG (AS1.DE) led the declines falling 13.1% for the week despite positive news on April 3 that it’s production expansion was on track and it had received orders in 2008 for EUR 150 million. With First Solar (FSLR) also falling 3.5% the decline was not limited to the silicon world as some commentary alluded to. Without extraordinary news to push the sector down the relatively modest change for this highly volatile group seems to be primarily driven by broader market movements.
In the Renewable Electricity sector Camino’s index advanced 0.3% with 14 stocks climbing and 9 retreating. German wind farm developer Planbeck Neue Energien Ag (PNE3.DE) led all increases with a 13.1% gain. On March 31 the company reported on 2007 results and conducted a press and analyst conference. The company reported a solid pipeline and positive news about its wind blade subsidiary SSP Technology. While the stock price didn’t react for a few days it looks like this week’s price gain is a reaction to the recent news.
Biofuels reversed last week’s small gain with a 7.5% decline culminating in a YTD decline of 32.4%. There were 3 advancing stocks to 12 stocks falling. Aventine (AVR) led the way down lowering 23.1 % for the week. 9.5 % of the decline occurred Friday after a USB analyst lower their target price due to concerns over corn prices and shrinking margins. Aventine is now valued at USD 0.97 per gallon of production capacity. This compares favorably with VeraSun’s (VSE) value of USD 0.67 per gallon of production capacity (after this year’s 5 new plants start-up). If it is possible to make any money producing ethanol, the company valuations have to be getting low enough to be attractive.
Fuel Cells also reversed last weeks gain with the index falling 2.2% on 1 stock advancing and 6 stocks declining. Ceramic Fuel Cells LTD (CFU.L) kept the index from falling further with its 13.6% gain for the week. We found no public news that would explain Ceramic’s being able to move counter to the market unless these are second reaction to the company’s Feb 28 order announcement. ITM Power (ITM.L), on the other hand, continued to lose ground with a 12.4% decline. I share the market’s skepticism about the impact of the company’s recent electrolyzer development.
Solar continues to move with the broader markets, all of which were down for the week. With its high beta over any period during the last 500 days the index’s performance this week is to be expected. Biofuels continue to be plagued by questions regarding profitability. Clearly, getting bigger, like VeraSun did with it’s acquisition of US Bioenergy, isn’t perceived as materially helping the basic operating cost issue. At some point stock prices for Biofuel companies will get low enough to present a compelling price / cash flow return and investors will start taking positions.
Mark is the founder of Camino Energy, an information provider specializing in globally traded sustainable energy stocks. He also is an investor in sustainable energy stocks. Mark has a position in PNE3.DELabels: AS1.DE, AVR, biofuel, CFU.L, cleantech, FSLR, fuel cell, green tech, ITM.l, PNE3.DE, renewable electricity, solar, VSE
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Cellulosic Ethanol - Always the Bridesmaid?
I have a new set of predictions for ethanol technology, and so far my predictions on ethanol have been dead on. Cellulosic ethanol has been the thin film of the ethanol industry, always the bridesmaid. But perhaps, like with the breakthrough by First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR), it’s time is coming.
I have written extensively on the topic of ethanol and biofuels, including an early 2006 analysis of the VeraSun (NASDAQ:VSE) IPO right before its pricing that predicted an appropriate price at the time in the range of $2.77 to $8.82 share. The business has grown since then, but EBITDA margins have slipped even farther than I predicted they would, but the forward PE has come right into line with my predictions way back then. After listing well above my range, the stock hit a high north of $30 before pulling back until it is finally in my original lrange, trading in the $7-8 per share range.
Nearly two years ago in mid 2006 I did another article on predictions for cellulosic ethanol:
“My Predictions on the Ethanol Market:
- The corn market will likely be able to handle significantly more corn based ethanol production through substituting corn from the animal feed market than is currently anticipated.
- Cellulosic ethanol will come on line to replace a lot slower than anticipated - even when the technology arrives.
- The early cellulosic plants will likely be residual based, perhaps corn stover from fields already producing for corn ethanol - NOT purpose planted fuel crops.
- Cellulosic technologies that allow fuel switching and co-firing will have an advantage.
- Because of the transport issues - cellulosic ethanol will be relegated primarily to vertically integrated plants like the biomass power industry for the near future (where the operator owns its own fuel supply). They will struggle to compete on price with corn based ethanol.
- And if ethanol succeeds like DOE expects, our beef prices are headed up.”
And then I wrote an article in late 2006 entitled “Are Ethanol Companies Risky Investments?” for AltEnergyStocks.com. The conclusion – yes, of course.
“In the short run ethanol stocks are in a land grab phase ramping to meet demand, and some of these stocks may do well while demand still outstrips supply and the industry is still small, but when this dynamic changes – watch out as the margin pressure will be brutal, and could turn already aggressively valued stocks into a dot bomb style free fall as per gallon profits get crushed. So, make your profits while you can!"
So here are my new cellulosic ethanol predictions:
Prediction #1 - Both market entry and market share for the next several years in ethanol will roughly be governed by this ranking on preferred processes (with some allowance for process that involve more than one), and given feedstock, scalability, yield, and transport issues, sugar cane and corn fermentation will remain the market and cost leaders for some time.
- Fermentation
- Thermochemical
- Catalytic
- Enzymatic
- Wildcards
Roughly the farther down we go on this ranking the higher the risk of failure, the higher the current cost, the more difficult the scalability (if you swap #1 and #2), the higher the reliance on future technological advances, and the higher the requirements for vertical integration to make the economics work.
Prediction #2 – As ethanol and biofuels scale into significant portions of our fuel supply chain, most of the profits will be made by energy, refining companies, and Ag companies, who are more likely to build rather than to buy when it comes to expansion.
Prediction #3 – Despite all protestations to the contrary, ethanol and biofuels will continue to be our highest cost liquid fuel for at least a decade, though at $100 crude oil prices, even a high cost fuel can be competitive. Note: As I have said many times before, on a fully integrated direct cost basis, gasoline from oil can be profitably found, manufactured and distributed down well into the sub $0.50/gallon range, depending on the nature of the resource base in question, where as even the lowest cost forms of ethanol today are well over double that. Just because crude oil prices are north of $100 per barrel, does not mean that the COST of gasoline is higher than that of ethanol, it means that the PRICE of gasoline is high enough that the higher cost ethanol can be economically produced and sold. The implication is obviously that he who owns the reserves (either oil in the ground or corn in the field) will continue to do well.
Neal Dikeman is a founding partner at Jane Capital Partners LLC, a boutique merchant bank advising strategic investors and startups in cleantech. He is founding contributor of Cleantech Blog, a Contributing Editor to Alt Energy Stocks, Chairman of Cleantech.org, and a blogger for CNET's Cleantech blog.
Labels: biofuel, cellulosic ethanol, cleantech, ethanol, green tech, Verasun
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Heavy-Duty Vehicle Trends for 2008
By John Addison (2/8/08). Most oil consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from transportation are not from passenger vehicles; they are from the heavy-duty vehicles, ships, and planes that move all our goods, serve public transit, and provide the infrastructure that keeps cities running. Heavy-duty operators have often been years ahead of passenger vehicle owners in using advanced technology to do more with less fuel.
Hybrids. Wal-Mart operates 7,000 trucks that in 2005 drove 872 million miles to make 900,000 deliveries to its 6,600 stores. Wal-Mart has set a goal of doubling the fuel efficiency of its new heavy-duty trucks from 6.5 to 13 miles per gallon by 2015. 26 billion pounds less of carbon dioxide would be emitted over 15 years as a result. Demand for oil is also reduced with over one billion less gallons of diesel required over that 15 year period.
Wal-Mart is defying the conventional wisdom that hybrid technology is of little help for large trucks that already have efficient diesel engines. Wal-Mart delivers goods from regional warehouses on an optimized route to its stores. Routes often involve heavy stop-go city driving. With hybrid technology, every touch of the brakes causes energy to be captured. Where trucks previously idled with engines running, hybrids can run all auxiliary power with the engine off, using large battery stacks for the electricity.
Wal-Mart has more than 100 hybrid light-duty vehicles. Now Wal-Mart sees bigger potential savings in heavy-duty Class 8 trucks. Wal-Mart plans to replace Peterbilt 386 big-rigs with hybrid versions of the same truck by 2009. Wal-Mart Clean Fleet Report
Plug-in Hybrids. PG&E is one of 14 utilities in the nation participating in the pilot truck program, sponsored by WestStart's Hybrid Truck Users Forum (HTUF), a hybrid commercialization project bringing together truck fleet users, truck makers, technology companies, and the U.S. military, to field-test utility trucks with an integrated hybrid power-train solution.
This new Class 6/7 hybrid truck is built by International incorporating the Eaton (ETN) hybrid drive system with a 44kW electric motor. Eaton has produced more than 220 drive systems for medium and heavy hybrid-powered vehicles. Vehicle configurations include package delivery vans, medium-duty delivery trucks, beverage haulers, city buses and utility repair trucks – each of which has generated significant fuel economy gains and emission reductions. Fleet customers for Eaton hybrid power have included FedEx Express, UPS, Coca-Cola Enterprises, The Pepsi Bottling Group, and the 14 public utility fleets into which were placed 24 hybrid-powered repair trucks.
Idle-off. In many heavy-duty fleets, engines idle 40% of the time at stops for many auxiliary needs including air conditioning, heating, running electronics inside the cab and more. These auxiliary functions can now be powered with the batteries in hybrid powertrains, with auxiliary power units such as fuel cells, and with truck-stop electrification. Heavy-vehicles can now be programmed to automatically idle-off after a prescribed amount of stop time, such as California’s five-minute law. Idle-off is possible by GPS location, such as specific bus stops. Wal-Mart alone estimates savings of $25 million with idle-off and APUs for its 7,000 trucks. Transit operators save millions of gallons of fuel and keep passengers happy with electronic air conditioning without diesel fumes.
Natural Gas. There are about five million natural gas vehicles in operation globally. These vehicles consume 238 million gasoline gallon equivalents. That amount has doubled in only five years. CNG vehicles are popular in fleets that carry lots of people: buses, shuttles and taxis. Natural gas fleets are likely to double again in the next five years. Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (LAMTA) serves over ten million people with the nation’s largest natural gas fleet, comprised of over 2,000 CNG buses. A growing number of riders enjoy higher-speed service with LAMTA’s bus rapid transit.
To help clear Southern California air, the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach established a $1.6 billion Clean Truck Superfund to purchase 5,300 alt-fuel trucks by 2010 out of a total fleet of 16,800 Class 8 trucks. All are likely to be Westport LNG systems installed in Kenworth T800 trucks.
Hydrogen Fuel Cells. Many passenger cars have the potential to meet all driver needs by plugging in for a nightly recharge of batteries in electric vehicles. Buses running 16 hours daily and climbing 12% grades can also be electric, but most need the added electricity provided by hydrogen fuel cells. Over 3,000,000 people have ridden these vehicles in Europe and the U.S.
Energy Security. The Army's NAC is pursuing hybrid truck technology to significantly reduce the Army’s fuel consumption and logistics needs, to provide field-generation of power and to provide quiet, stealth operations. The U.S. Army has a fleet of over 246,000 vehicles with a goal to reduce fuel consumption by 75% by 2010.
Green Supply Chains. ConAgra has contracted with Nova Biosource Fuels to convert food processing waste into biofuel, greatly helping with waste regulations. This provides Nova Biosource Fuels with a low-cost feedstock for high-quality biodiesel. ConAgra has guaranteed the purchase of 130 million gallons per year. California-based State Logistics, has grown its business by providing more-sustainable shipping options for companies like Clif Bar. Prologis will only build USGBC LEED certified distribution centers.
On February 20, fleet managers, vehicle technology leaders, government leaders, other experts and stakeholders will gather in San Diego to discuss their success in all of these areas at the Clean Heavy-Duty Vehicle Conference 2008.
"Clean Heavy Duty Vehicle 2008 highlights the vehicles and fuels that will actually cut our greenhouse gases and reduce our dependence on oil," said John Boesel, President and CEO of WestStart-CALSTART, a leader in spurring green tech in transportation. "The conference brings together the key business and political leaders helping bridge the technological and financial gaps to bring clean transportation solutions to market."
Stay tuned for more exciting progress in 2008.
John Addison publishes the Clean Fleet Report.
Labels: biodiesel, biofuel, clean fleet, cleantech, diesel, energy, green tech, Hybrid, hydrogen, Lithium ion, Plug-in, trucks, vehicles
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Mona Lisas and Mad Hatters
Bob Metcalfe is a friendly, handsome, easy-going sort, and he sported a bit of Saturday stubble when we spoke over a Thai lunch in Boston a few weeks back. Bob, an MIT grad who wears the school ring, is also the founder of 3-Com and the interim CEO of a biofuel startup,
GreenFuel. Over lunch I did not learn much more about GreenFuel than is available on the company's website, nor more than is available on
xconomy.com. Xconomy.com has been goading the company, and back in July 2007 published Bob's
five-point plan to rejuvenate it and the technology.
Which is fascinating: high yield algae farms recycle carbon dioxide from flue gases to produce biofuels and feed. Algae's 'bout as green as it gets, and the GreenFuel process has biomimicry going for it: "Why expensively sequester CO2 when it can be profitably recycled?" However, growing algae, the kind needed for GreenFuel, isn't as easy as it would seem, thus the five-point fix-it plan.
I wanted to ask Bob, "you're a wealthy guy; you don't need the money; so why do you invest in this greentech stuff?" ... but instead peeled back a suggestion of an answer from the table banter. He invests in non-cleantech ventures as well as cleantech, would love to get into nuclear...and he is impressed with McCain and Romney, presidential candidates with same-old-oil-and-coal-box energy ideas that nod to cap-and-trade. What I surmised chatting with Bob is that his world view is one of business and technology and finance; solutions to problems aren't found in government, and GreenFuel is a business venture.
It's a world view with its own language, and it reminds me of heady days in 1980s-New York, dating investment bankers whose European and Asian compatriots oriented to the oppulence of Hotel Plaza Athenee -- an airy space floating out of touch with the masses, delivered by private car with driver. I heard the language and the world view again on E&E TV as Monica Trauzzi
interviewed Michael Liebreich, CEO and founder of New Energy Finance, a London-based company that specializes in research of clean energy and carbon markets. He was talking about game theory in negotiations around climate change: nice, retaliating, forgiving, clear. The Liebreich interview is a fun, intellectual ride, but within it, like conversations I have with engineers and financiers, some critical link to success is missing...people and their own motivations to buy what engineers and financiers are selling.
Bob Metcalfe and I first met on the plaza outside of the Christian Science Mother Church, so it was curious when a September 2006 issue of the Church's publication, Sentinel, Exploring the World of Spirituality and Healing, recently crossed my desk. In an article, "Love Enough to Change the Climate," the editors wrote:
"[There isn't] much doubt that the primary cause of climate change is rooted in human behavior, and especially in the world's accelerating deforestation and the consumption of fossil fuels." Asking how to respond and adjust, the editors wrote, "We don't know how to 'engineer' attitudinal and social change. But we do know something about change at the level of individual experience--at the mental, moral, and spiritual levels. The one thing we are sure of is that lasting and universally beneficial change comes through spiritual transformation. We know, too, the importance of understanding what it is that actually needs changing, what produces the alterative effect, and how change for the better can come about in a systematic and dependable way. All of these steps are essentials in healing spiritually. And ultimately, the solution to every challenge is spiritual--it lies in the human mentality yielding to divine intelligence and thereby being reborn, or re-formed...Transformation of human character and behavior does not happen solely by national leaders signing treaties, by legislatures passing laws, by government agencies making policy or regulatory enforcement changes. Public attitudes change one heart at a time...Just as our bodily health mirrors the quality and tendencies of our thoughts, our states of collective social well-being and environmental health reflect humanity's mental state."
The article delves really deep into CS-speak which I find hard to comprehend, and ends: "Cannot we, as a global family, love enough to change the mental climate for the better? Can't we love Earth and those living on it it enough to commit to a Year of Thinking Differently. God's gift is the space to do just that."
This past week, I heard Elton John on the radio for the hundredth time, but the words of "Mona Lisas and Mad Hatters" meant something for the first time. With the launch of
Focus the Nation, a national student teach-in on global warming solutions for America, I reflected on the need to heal the planet, but in the context of markets and the global financiers, the venturers and the angels, the rounds and flights, as money in Silicon Valley and New York rushes to cleantech:
Sons of bankers, sons of lawyers
Turn around and say good morning to the night
For unless they see the sky
But they can't and that is why
They know not if it's dark outside or light
I can't help but wonder, can Focus the Nation transform the consciousness of the sons of bankers and the sons of lawyers? Will global financiers respond to a transformed and healing world view or are these world views forever disconnected?
One day, I'll ask Bob a clearer question: for you, as an individual, what is the connection between markets, your companies and healing the planet?
Heather Rae, a contributor to cleantechblog.com, is a consultant in cleantech market management and serves on the board of Maine Interfaith Power & Light. In 2006, she built a biobus and drove it from Colorado to Maine. In 2007, she began renovation of an 1880 farmhouse using building science and green building principles.Labels: biofuel, cleantech, energy, green tech, greenfuel, sustainability
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