Only Renewables Gain (Week Ending 4/25) + Solar ETFs
Author: Mark Henwood Broad market indices were mixed this week and so were Camino’s PurePlay™ indices.
The Solar index followed last week's 7.0% gain with a small 0.2% decline. The index members were also mixed with 15 stocks increasing and 19 stocks declining. Most notable in the group was Centrosolar (C3O.DE) which gained 26.2% for the week. The stock jumped on the 23rd after the company announced provisional results that were above expectations. Sales for the quarter were up 86% over the previous year and EBITDA almost tripled. One analyst suggested the stock was undervalued.
Camino’s Renewable Electricity index managed a small 0.1% increase with 8 stocks climbing and 15 retreating.
Biofuels reversed last week’s 1.5% gain with a 1.9% loss. There were 7 advancing stocks to 8 stocks falling. Several of the ethanol stocks (AVR, PEIX, VSE) seemed to benefit from coverage by Oppenheimer whose analyst believes that overcapacity in the sector will resolve itself in the next 12 to 18 months.
Fuel Cells slumped 5.1% on 1 stock advancing and 6 stocks declining. FuelCell Energy (FCEL) reported a sale to Posco which was well received by the market resulting in a 11% price increase for the week. The sale involved delivering 25.6 MW at a contact value of USD 70 million, or over USD 2,700 / kW. Analysts believe this number is below cost but will help the company reduce its cost. After years of losses FuelCell needs to get it right and get its costs down so it can compete in a very competitive natural gas fired electric generation market.
Solar ETFs It came as no surprise that solar ETFs have been launched by Claymore (TAN) and VanEck (KWT). These two providers worked hard to differentiate their products by using slightly different company selections and weighting schemes. Unfortunately they didn’t decide to compete on cost coming out at an identical 65 basis points.
The result is indices that have a 74% overlap in their 27 constituents. Between the two indices the only company not included in Camino’s Solar index (34 constituents) is MEMC Electronics (WFR). By our computation in 2007 at most MEMC has a 25% exposure to solar so we’re not sure why Claymore included them. We don’t think they currently belong in our PurePlay™ index.
Going forward we expect these ETFs will have comparable performance and very high volatility. We routinely calculate Sharp ratios for our indices in an effort to assess the risk/reward profile of the sector. Over the last 365 days our solar index’s Sharpe ratio was 0.8 and over the last two years the ratio was 0.48, both periods measured against the 13wk T-Bill. Traditional fund managers would probably not find these values attractive particularly considering their high beta. That said, we think there are plenty of opportunities in the sustainable energy sector.
Mark is the founder of Camino Energy, an information provider specializing in globally traded sustainable energy stocks. He also is an investor in sustainable energy stocks. Mark has no positions in solar.Labels: AVR, biofuels, C3O.DE, cleantech, FCEL, fuel cell, green tech, KWT, PEIX, renewable electricity, solar, TAN, VSE
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Is Ethanol's Carbon Footprint Bad? It Depends.
In the cleantech and carbon worlds, the carbon footprint of ethanol, whether from corn or sugar feedstocks and fermentation processes, or enzymatic or thermochemical cellulosic sources, is always good fodder (or perhaps, "fuel") for debate.
And depending on which process and which study you personally ascribe to, the answer on how carbon clean ethanol looks depends. In most debates centering on corn fermentation, for example, the studies cite a range from say, 20 to 30% less carbon intensive than gasoline, to 20 or 30% more. This begs one very big question in my mind, what's the difference? How does the same ethanol in my car have a possible carbon footprint range that wide?
The true answer lies in the ground we walk on. When I started to read a few of the studies and articles about them, an interesting fact emerges, the difference depends in large part on which land gets counted. Most of ethanol's carbon footprint falls into one of several categories, in roughly ascending order (depending on the source and process), the fuel used to make it, the fuel used to grow the feedstock, the carbon content of the fuel itself, and the lost carbon not sequestered in the vegetation that would have been on the land used to grow the feedstock.
The last one, land use change, is the bugaboo. For example, if you assume that all the land used to produce the ethanol feedstock is already in production, you tend to find a carbon footprint at the low end of the range, since there is little net reduction in the carbon sink, and ethanol looks pretty good. If you assume that all the land used to produce the ethanol feedstock came from forests that had been chopped down, or marginal land that produces very low yields, you tend to find a carbon footprint at the high end of the range, and ethanol looks bad. Thought about another way, ethanol made from corn or sugar that displaces human or animal food production is likely to be relatively greenhouse gas friendly comparedd to ethanol made from corn or sugar that comes from new land put into production just for ethanol. The same logic applies to cellulosic ethanol sources, though not quite to the same degree. Interesting conundrum.
As usual, the devil's in the details, and people tend to use the case that best addresses their agenda. Personally, I'm buying all my ethanol from land that is already in production, so my carbon footprint must be good. The rest of you can buy the OTHER ethanol with all the bad carbon footprint.
Neal Dikeman is a founding partner at Jane Capital Partners LLC, a boutique merchant bank advising strategic investors and startups in cleantech. He is founding contributor of Cleantech Blog, a Contributing Editor to Alt Energy Stocks, Chairman of Cleantech.org, and a blogger for CNET's Greentech blog.Labels: biofuels, carbon, cellulosic ethanol, cleantech, ethanol, ghg, green tech, greenhouse gas
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The Week in Sustainable Energy Stocks (Week Ending 3/14)
Author: Mark HenwoodThe Dow traded in a 569 range this week reflecting negative credit market news and strong intervention by government institutions. Global results were mixed with EAFA advancing and the S&P and Emerging Markets declining. The final changes were not dramatic. This translated into mixed results for the Camino indices with three indices retreating and one, Solar, advancing.The Solar index increased 1.8% bringing the YTD decline for the sector to –41.5%. LDK Solar Co. LTD (LDK), which fell 21.3 % last week, led all stocks in the index with a 16.3% increase. Most of this gain happened Thursday and Friday after the company’s press release reported it had sold 100% of its 2008 production and 90% of 2009. The communication also shed some light on the inventory issue. This strong sales picture may be supportive of the view that demand for PV product hasn’t been affected much by larger economic concerns. Overall the sector had 19 stocks climbing and 14 stocks falling.Biofuels experienced a 1.9% decline with 6 stocks rising and 10 stocks falling. Gushan (GU) was the leader recovering 7.5% after last weeks 24.9% decline. On the declining side, Schmack Biogas (SB1.DE) led the field with a 11.6% decrease. This may be a delayed reaction to the company’s 2/26 release of 2007 results where strong sales growth (47% !) was coupled with a wider than expected loss. VeraSun (VSE) and US BioEnergy (USBE) also suffered steep declines after VeraSun reported on Wednesday that ethanol prices weren’t increasing as fast as corn costs. Getting bigger with the merger isn’t going to change that equation. In the Renewable Electricity sector Camino’s index retreated 0.5% with 8 stocks climbing and 11 retreating. Geodynamics Ltd. (GDY.AX) led the pack with a 17.2% decline. The only news we found was an ASX note on 3/11 that a flow test had been delayed until 3/14.
Fuel Cells had another down week with the index decreasing 3.2% on 3 stocks advancing and 4 stocks declining. ITM Power (ITM.L) suffered a 25.2% decline. On Feb 5 Citigroup criticized the company’s unfocused business strategy and apparently the company’s 3/14 announcement of a testing contract with Bi-Fuels did little to sharpen the strategy. What did I learn this week? Traders are listening carefully to company communications and are very quick to take decisive action on news, both positive and negative. I also think LDK’s order news may be significant as a bell weather for overall demand in the solar sector.
Mark is the founder of Camino Energy, an information provider specializing in globally traded sustainable energy stocks. He also is an investor in sustainable energy stocks. Mark holds a position in GDY.AX .Labels: biofuels, cleantech, fuel cell, GDY.AX, green tech, GU, ITM.l, LDK, renewable electricity, SB1.DE, solar, USBE, VSE
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The week in sustainable energy stocks (ending 3/7/08) ….
By Mark Henwood
Continuing concerns with economic conditions drove all the broad stock indicators into negative territory for the week. With one expectation our sustainable energy indices followed suit with three indices retreating and one, Renewable Electricity, advancing.
The Solar index suffered another large drop of 5.9% bringing the YTD decline for the sector to –42.5%. In perspective, even with this large YTD decline the index has 46% to give up before it losses all of the huge gains in 2007. LDK Solar Co. LTD (LDK) led the move downward falling 21.3% and closing below its IPO price. Apparently there remains some lingering angst over inventory issues. Overall the sector had 4 stocks climbing and 29 stocks falling.
Biofuels suffered a significant 12.5% decline with all 16 stocks falling and 5 falling more than 20%. It looks like concerns about rising corn prices and reduced margins affected the ethanol producers. Gushon (GU) reported a Q4 loss and, despite management explaining the loss was due to a large non-cash charge, the stock declined 24.9%
In the Renewable Electricity sector our index advanced 0.9% with 10 stocks climbing and 9 retreating. Suzlon (SUZON.NS) is a big component of the index and was down 13.1% percent after reporting a turbine blade replacement program for 1,251 blades. This represents a market cap decline of more than USD 1 million per blade against management’s estimated cost of USD 24,000 per blade.
Fuel Cells had a down week with the index decreasing 6.3% on 1 stock advancing and 6 stocks declining. FuelCell Energy Inc. (FCEL) led the movement downward with its stock price falling 14.3% for the week. Most of the loss came after their earnings call on March 6.
What did I learn this week? Oil prices hit record highs and sustainable stocks fall sharply with the broader market. Given the relatively high beta of the Solar, Fuel Cell, and Biofuels indices, their stock performance seems to be weakly correlated to oil prices and much more strongly influenced by broad market trends. Renewable Electricity, with its lower beta, may offer some portfolio diversification benefit.
Mark is the founder of Camino Energy, a information provider specializing in globally traded sustainable energy stocks. He also is an investor in sustainable energy stocks. Mark doen't hold a position in any of the specifically mentioned stocks.Labels: biofuels, cleantech, FCEL, fuel cell, green tech, greenfuel, GU, LDK, renewable electricity, solar, SUZLON.NS
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The Increasing Ubiquity of Cleantech
by Richard T. StuebiI have subscribed to
Forbes for over a decade because, unlike many other popular business journals, it seems to have a genuine voice -- even if I sometimes disagree with it.
On a plane flight from Cleveland to L.A. last Thursday night, I read the March 10, 2008 issue, and was amazed at how pervasive cleantech has become -- even in its stoutly conservative pages:
It was the SKF ad that really floored me, making me take notice just how ubiquitous cleantech is truly becoming. I've never seen SFK advertise anywhere before. Just which decision-makers is SKF trying to reach with this placement in a mass-market magazine?
Cleantech is seemingly everywhere. True, some of it may be "greenwash", but a lot of it is real, and it is growing.
Then I went back to reading the magazine, and realized we still have a ways to go: on p. 19, Steve Forbes writes yet another
editorial continuing to stoutly deny climate change. I laugh and shake my head: some things never change.
Maybe Mr. Forbes should take better note of what the major corporations showing up in the pages of his magazine are actually doing to make money. After all, isn't Forbes the paragon of capitalism? If companies are rushing to cleantech in droves, shouldn't Forbes take heed of what the market is leading these companies to do to increase their profitable growth?
Richard T. Stuebi is the BP Fellow for Energy and Environmental Advancement at The Cleveland Foundation, and is also the Founder and President of NextWave Energy, Inc.Labels: biofuels, carbon legislation, cleantech, climate change, green tech, offshore wind, solar energy, wind energy
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The week in sustainable energy stocks….
By Mark Henwood
Neal says “keep going”. So let's start with the big picture.
Stocks were down - S&P, EAFA, emerging markets. Commodities advanced. The broad based ETN tracking the DJ AIG commodity index (DJP) increased 3.1% for the week. This was the week of oil history. Our sustainable energy indices were mixed with one, our biggest, declining and three advancing.
The Solar index suffered another large decline dropping 5.2% bringing the YTD decline for the sector to –38.9%. Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd (SOLF) -16% and JA Solar Holdings Co (JASO) -13.9% led the decline after an analyst downgrade prompted by declining margins and weaker demand. With 25 stocks declining versus 8 advances, these concerns must be widely held.
In Biofuels our index advanced 1.8% led by an impressive 52.7% increase, in US dollars, for Basil Ecodiesel (ECOD3.SA). Despite Basil Ecodiesel being the largest biodiesel producer in Brazil, none of our usual news sources reported any developments to explain the sharp increase. Aventine (AVR) continued downward off another 7.3% in the wake of its liquidity issues, despite S&P leaving Aventine’s rating unchanged.
In the Renewable Electricity sector our index advanced 1.8% with 12 stocks advancing and 7 declining. Our scan of the news showed a series of normal announcements typical of an industry with some traction. The index results this week, moving counter to broad markets, are not surprising given the index’s 100 day beta of only .3.
Fuel Cells had a strong week with the index increasing 7.8%. The increase was due in large part to the 44.6% gain for Ceramic Fuel Cells Ltd. (CFU.L) Ceramic reported it was constructing a manufacturing plant in Heinsberg, Germany and a substantial order for 50,000 2 kW micro CHP units from NUON. If these units are able operate reliability at a reasonable cost this could be an important breakthrough in a significant market targeted by a number of fuel cell companies.
What did I learn this week? Market developments reinforced the highly “leveraged” nature of solar stock prices. High growth expectations result in high volatility. I also realized I need better information sources for some of the lesser developed markets like Brazil. These are important investment centers and I’ll be looking for improved resources. We also saw investors are carefully looking for the key breakthrough. Ceramic is now center stage.
Mark is the founder of Camino Energy, a information provider specializing in globally traded sustainable energy stocks. He also is an investor in sustainable energy stocks.Labels: AVR, biofuels, CFU.L, cleantech, ECOD3.SA, fuel cell, green tech, JASO, renewable electricity, solar, SOLF
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Up in the Air With Biofuels
by Richard T. StuebiOver the weekend,
Virgin Atlantic Airways flew a passenger-less Boeing 747-400 partially fueled by a biofuel mixture of coconut oil and babassu oil from London's Heathrow Airport to Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport. (Read
USA Today story.)
The test flight, performed to evaluate comparative engine performance and emissions rates with standard jet fuel and biofuel mixtures, was conducted by Virgin along with partners
Boeing (NYSE: BA), the engine-maker
General Electric (NYSE: GE), and the biofuel company
Imperium Renewables.
No matter how the results of the experiment pan out, and no matter your personal view on the fundmental utility of biofuels, this is yet another example of how a passionate entrepreneur -- albeit one with billions of dollars on his personal balance sheet like
Richard Branson -- is exploring the cleantech frontiers of what is possible, what is economical, what is environmentally-beneficial.
Richard T. Stuebi is the BP Fellow for Energy and Environmental Advancement at The Cleveland Foundation, and is also the Founder and President of NextWave Energy, Inc.Labels: alternative energy, biofuels, Boeing, cleantech, energy, GE, green tech, greentech
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The week in sustainable energy stocks....
Neal asked me if I would comment on the markets for sustainable energy stocks in the last week. It's an area I follow closely so he hopes I will occasionally stumble across some nuggets.Let me start by saying I believe there is potential for good returns in sustainable energy stocks over time. In the short term though, it was a tough week. Sustainable energy stocks in all four of Camino’s sectors declined. In contrast, broader indicators such as the S&P, EAFA, and emerging markets were all positive for the week.
The Solar index, comprised of 33 companies, suffered the largest decline with a 5.3% drop bringing the YTD decline for the sector to -35.5%. Suntech (NYSE:STP) was hardest hit with a 20.3% price decline after it reported earnings and revenue below expectations, driven in part by silicon supply issues. If other producers report similar problems I would expect to see further declines in the sector as prices adjust to lower growth expectations.
In Biofuels Aventine (NYSE:AVR) was off 17.4% after it reported Thursday it had liquidity issues stemming from its $211.5 million invested in auction-rate securities. This issue may delay plant development. I expect analysts are reviewing the balance sheets of other sustainable energy companies to see if they have “cash equivalents” that aren’t exactly equivalent to cash. If you don’t understand what you’re investing in don’t invest in it.
In the Renewable Electricity sector Solar Millenium (FRA:S2M) declined 10.1% . The company announced a rights issue on Feb 19 that may have triggered concerns about dilution. Overall 8 stocks advanced and 11 declined resulting in relatively modest decline of 1.1% in the index.
In Fuel Cells all of our companies reported price declines with Fuel Cell Energy (NASDAQ:FCEL) falling the most at -6.3%. The company presented at the PiperJaffray conference on February 20, 2008 and didn’t highlight any items of concern that I noted.
What did I learn this week? Apparently growth constraints are still a factor in the high growth solar sector. I also relearned that unexpected risks occur when broader markets are having problems. Are there more surprises from the credit markets waiting to be revealed in sustainable energy companies? Mark is the founder of Camino Energy, a information provider specializing in globally traded sustainable energy stocks. He also is an investor in sustainable energy stocks. Labels: AVR, biofuels, cleantech, FCEL, fuel cell, green tech, renewable electricity, solar, stocks, STP
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Blogroll Review: Biocrude, Alaska, & Policy
by Frank LingWaste to OilThink you need special enzymes to convert plant materials into fuel? It looks like science is getting closer to eliminating that step. Pretty soon we might be able to directly convert crop residues, waste paper, and pretty much anything organic into bio-crude, which is essentially oil.
The secret ingredient? Heat. It turns out that raising the temperature breaks the bonds of organic materials (in fact heat pretty much breaks any bond at a high enough temperature) through a process known as pyrolysis.
Jim Fraser, in a recent
article at the Energy Blog, explains how this works:
Fast pyrolysis is a process in which the organic materials are rapidly heated to 450 - 600 °C at atmospheric pressure in the absence of air. Under these conditions, organic vapours, pyrolysis gases and charcoal are produced. The vapours are condensed to bio-oil. Typically, 70-75 wt.% of the feedstock is converted into oil.The product can be used not only to replace gasoline and diesel, it can be used as feedstock for the chemical industry.
Steamed AlaskaGeothermal power is coming to a resort near you. At least the ones in Alaska.
At the Chena Hot Springs Resort in Fairbanks, Alaska engineers have created a breakthrough hydrothermal system that generates power using "low-temperature" reservoir water at 165 F, in contrast to conventional systems that required at least 300 F.
Jack Moins writes in
EcoGeek:
The plant cost a mere $2.2 million to build as it uses all off the shelf parts. It produces 200 kw at a cost of 5 cents per kwh, compared to the former costs of 30 cents per kwh when using diesel. The design is projected to pay for itself within four to five years. Hydrothermal power is very promising, as it is estimated that the water beneath the Earth’s surface holds 50,000 times the amount of energy in the remaining gas and coal resourcesAmong its innovations, the system uses a three-pressure system and ammonia-water cycles, which limits the use of toxic coolants. With this early success, the entire town of Chena is adopting hydrothermal for its buildings and a greenhouse for food production
U.S. Climate LegislationAll the major US presidential candidates are making global warming a part of the their platform. Whoever wins, policy for energy, environment, and even agriculture are bound to change significantly.
But democracy is not always a fast process. Dan Reicher, director of climate and energy initiatives for Google.org and former U.S. assistant energy secretary, says that the next president will indeed push for change but any regulations will take time to phase in.
Rachel Barron, in Green Tech Media,
writes:
2009 could bring a dramatic increase in support from Congress for R&D and more favorable approaches to clean-energy incentives.Frank Ling is a postdoctoral fellow at the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory (RAEL) at UC Berkeley. He is also a producer of the Berkeley Groks Science Show.Labels: alaska, biofuels, biomimicry, cleantech, climate change, energy, energy policy, federal policy, geothermal, green tech
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Policy Progress in the Midwest
by Richard T. StuebiWhen it comes to clean energy, it's no secret that the Midwest U.S. far lags beyond the East and West Coasts. This is because, on the coasts, public policy far more aggressively promotes advanced energy. The
Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) in the Northeast and the
Western Climate Initiative in the West are regional emission-reduction compacts that will drive significant adoption of renewable energy and energy efficiency. Correspondingly, much of the future advanced energy industry is emerging on the coasts, getting established to serve local markets, while the Midwestern industrial base largely hollows out and stagnates.
A few weeks ago, the
Midwestern Governors Association (MGA) began to take steps to close the gaps. The Governors of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin, along with the Premier of the Canadian province of Manitoba, met to discuss shared energy challenges. The result:
two pacts that start to lay the groundwork for regional collaboration and commitment to energy/emissions reductions.
The
Energy Security and Climate Stewardship Platform sets significant goals in four areas:
- Energy efficiency: electricity demand reduced by 2% by 2015, 2% per year thereafter
- Biofuels: 1/2 of regional transportation satisfied by biofuels and other low carbon fuels by 2025
- Renewable energy: 30% of regional electricity supply from renewables by 2030
- Coal with carbon sequestration: all new coal plants with sequestration by 2020, all plants in fleet by 2050
The Energy Security and Climate Stewardship Platform also proposes six areas of regional collaboration:
- Carbon management infrastructure: for transporting and storing CO2 in a coordinated fashion
- Bioproduct procurement: to establish a common marketing/sales framework for bioproducts
- Electricity transmission: to expand transmission to accomodate greater amounts of renewables (especially wind)
- Renewable fuels infrastructure: for transporting biofuels and other low carbon fuels
- Bioenergy permitting: to avoid duplicating or conflicting efforts in various jurisdictions and arrive at common standards
- Low carbon energy integration: to demonstrate the potential to harness multiple forms of advanced energy synergistically
Lastly, some of the Midwestern governors signed the Greenhouse Gas Accord, which commits the signatories to establishing targets and timeframes for greenhouse gas reductions on the order of 60-80% reductions by 2050, along with a cap-and-trade mechanism for reaching these targets.
Note that only some of the Midwestern governors got on board with the Greenhouse Gas Accord. Signatories were Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Manitoba. Indiana, Ohio and South Dakota only opted for "observer" status -- whatever that really means.
A spokesman for Ohio Governor Strickland was quoted by Gongwer in saying that "the governor supports the Midwest states' effort to move forward in the way outlined in the agenda, but Ohio is not in a position today to participate actively in [the Greenhouse Gas Accord]." I am compelled to ask: what exactly about Ohio's current energy situation is materially different than, say, Michigan (which signed the Greenhouse Gas Accord)?
Richard T. Stuebi is the BP Fellow for Energy and Environmental Advancement at The Cleveland Foundation, and is also the Founder and President of NextWave Energy, Inc.Labels: biofuels, carbon sequestration, cleantech, Cleantech Blog, climate change, energy, energy efficiency, green tech, renewable energy
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Blogroll Review: Beer, Homes, and Geo
by Frank LingThis Kirin's For You!Even beer manufacturers are now getting on board the bio-ethanol train. In Japan, the Ministry of Agriculture has selected Mitsubishi Corporation and Kirin Brewery Co. to build a bioethanol production plant for a "fuel-grade bioethanol production project" in the Tokachi District of Hokkaido.
In the latest article featured in
Japan for Sustainability:
"A bioethanol plant with an annual production capacity of 15,000 kiloliters and using sugar beets and wheat as raw materials will be built on the premises of Hokuren's sugar refinery in Shimizu Town, Kamikawa County, Hokkaido."
Green Home BoomJust when you thought the real estate market might be slowing down, the market for green homes is about to grow.
Jeff Stevens at EcoGeek
writes that:
"According to the recently released Green Homeowner SmartMarket™ Report produced by McGraw-Hill Construction, the market for ‘true green homes’ is expected to rise from $2 billion to $20 billion over the next five years."
And I thought all you needed was green paint to make your home green! :)
Piping Hot Geo
Geothermal power has been around a long time. Although geographically limited to regions that are accessible, utilities have recently gained interest in develop geothermal for baseload power.
Tom Konrad at AltEnergy Stocks writes:
"In fact, geothermal plants often have capacity factors 86-95%, well above traditional base load generation such as coal. So geothermal power is a premium electricity because of its reliability. Until a recent fire (not caused by the geothermal facility) the plant installed last year at Chena Hot Springs in Alaska, was running at 99.4% availability."
Frank Ling is a postdoctoral fellow at the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory (RAEL) at UC Berkeley. He is also a producer of the Berkeley Groks Science Show.Labels: biofuels, clean energy, cleantech, Cleantech Blog, energy, green building, green tech, greentech
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Bio-fuel Cells
by Richard T. StuebiEarlier this month, here in Ohio, the fuel cell developer
Technology Management Inc. issued a
press release that it had succesfully operated its 1 kw solid oxide fuel cell stack on vegetable oil from soybeans. As
reported on the Internet, it is claimed that this is the first instance of a solid oxide fuel cell running on vegetable oil, and that this development could break open the market for fuel cells in the developing world.
This does seem to be an innovation of merit. I have no reason to doubt the assertion, but I'm curious if any of our readers know of other examples of biofuels in fuel cells.
Richard T. Stuebi is the BP Fellow for Energy and Environmental Advancement at The Cleveland Foundation, and is also the Founder and President of NextWave Energy, Inc.Labels: biofuels, cleantech, Cleantech Blog, energy, fuel cell, green tech
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Triple-Digit Oil Prices Ahead?
by Richard T. StuebiLast week,
as reported on Yahoo!, the chief economist of the investment bank
CIBC went on record that "We're in a world of triple digit oil prices for the foreseeable future," beginning by the end of 2008.
Increasingly, I've been hearing through the grapevine prognostications of $100/barrel oil. I put a lot more weight on CIBC's view than on
Hugo Chavez's. Why? Based in Canada, CIBC prides itself on being a banker of note to the huge Canadian oil and natural resources industry. Besides, Canadians in general seem less prone to hyperbole than we Americans (or Venezuelans). As a result, I expect that a firm such as CIBC doesn't put out such statements very lightly.
What does $100 oil mean? By my calculations, each additional $10/barrel increase in oil prices, translates to about $0.40/gallon in gasoline prices -- assuming no changes in oil transportation costs, oil refinery economics and oil taxation. So, if we're seeing gasoline close to $3.00/gallon today with oil at $80/barrel, I would expect almost $4.00/gallon at $100 oil.
Higher prices for motor fuels should provide further support for the emergence of biofuels markets (both ethanol and biodiesel). Although biofuels continues to receive lots of public sector push and mass-market discussion, the economics of biofuels have suffered recently, as feedstock prices (for corn and soybeans, respectively) have been bid up by surging demand for biofuel production. The price spreads between feedstock and fuel have become so narrow that biofuels producers now have little opportunity for profit. With higher prices in motor fuels markets, there is more prospect for investments in new biofuel production to be profitable, and for existing biofuel producers to return to reasonable profitability.
Perhaps more interestingly, higher oil prices will provide greater impetus -- both from the government and from private sector investments -- for the development of next-generation biofuel technologies (e.g., cellulosic ethanol, algae-based diesel), coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids projects, oil shale retorting approaches, and the hydrogen infrastructure. These are very capital-intensive and long-term opportunities that many parties are leery of pursuing, in the fear that oil prices will fall back to lower levels and render the efforts uncompetitive and therefore wasted.
If we are truly going to wean ourselves off of oil, we really need high oil prices for a long duration, in order to provide ongoing economic sustenance and continuing urgency for the development of these new energy technologies. The forecast of triple-digit oil prices should therefore not be something to dread, but rather something for economic opportunists to seize.
Richard T. Stuebi is the BP Fellow for Energy and Environmental Advancement at The Cleveland Foundation, and is also the Founder and President of NextWave Energy, Inc.Labels: biodiesel, biofuels, cellulosic ethanol, cleantech, Cleantech Blog, coal-to-liquids, energy, gas-to-liquids, green tech, oil prices, oil shale
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Blogroll Review: Flash, Reforestation, ED
by Frank LingMemory RevolutionHere's another example of nanotechnology contributing to energy efficiency. Through improved ability to manufacture memory, flash is starting to replace traditional hard drive applications.
Hank Green at
EcoGeek writes:
"There's a lot of reasons to herald the dawn of flash-based hard drives. They're faster, smaller, silent and, of course, tremendously more energy efficient. The difference between a traditional hard drive and a flash drive is roughly the difference between an incandescent light and a compact fluorescent light."
Still, isn't the brain the most energy efficient means of storing information or is it DNA?
Forest Better than Biofuels?Just as biofuels are becoming accepted, more evidence is coming in that their overall effects on emissions and the environment is negative. One recent study shows that reforestation is much more effective at offsetting CO2 than biofuel production.
Jeremy Elton Jacquot writes in
Treehuggger:
"Renton Righelato of the World Land Trust and Dominick Spracklen of the University of Leeds estimhttp://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.gifated that the initial cutting down of forests to plant more food crops, like corn and sugarcane, would release as much as 100 - 200 tons of carbon per hectare. "
Endocrine DisruptionBack when I was a chemist, I used to play around with exotic compounds like phthalates, which are used in plastics and cosmetics. Though touted as safe in commercial products, they are also recognized as being absorbed into humans, causing endocrine disruptions.
In this week's
Gristmill, Theo Colborn writes:
"Endocrine disruption should be right at the top of the list of most critical technological disasters facing the world today, up with climate change. With little notice, vast volumes and combinations of synthetic chemicals have settled in every environment in the world, including the womb environment."
No more sniffing chemicals for me! :)
Frank Ling is a postdoctoral fellow at the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory (RAEL) at UC Berkeley. He is also a producer of the Berkeley Groks Science Show.Labels: biofuels, carbon emissions, cleantech, Cleantech Blog, energy, green tech, greentech, information technology, nanotech
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Blogroll Review: Sinks, Oranges, Woz
by Frank LingPower BathroomFor many years, the Japanese have recycled sink water for their toilets. Now an American company is taking it further.
WaterSaver Technologies from Kentucky has developed the AQUS system, which Philip Proefrock at EcoGeek
says:
"...collects the water from a bathroom sink and filters and disinfects it before it gets re-used as flush water for an adjacent toilet. (There is nothing that would prevent this from being used in a large-scale LEED project either.)"
The toilet can save up to 7300 gallons of water each year.
According to the
Word Water Council, that's enough water to produce 2 kg of beef. :)
Orange-olApparently you can get more out of oranges than just orange juice. Some guys have figured out how to convert the citrus peel into ethanol.
Jim Fraser at the EnergyBlog
says:
"FPL Energy said that ethanol from citrus peel could result in a new Florida industry producing over 60 million gallons of fuel per year, which could replace about one percent of Florida's annual gasoline."
If only they had a way to make Pine-sol smell orangy....oh wait, I guess they already have. :)
Green Woz
Al Gore, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Cameron Diaz are all out there pushing for a greener future. But it doesn't hurt to have more celebrities out there to garner support.
Steve Jobs (from his own blog!)
quotes his old buddy Steve Wozniak as saying he wants to reduce his emissions:
"I have a long dream to build my own house in a very energy-efficient approach. That's going to be very soon. It uses the right kind of wood that serves as a heater and as an air conditioner."
Frank Ling is a postdoctoral fellow at the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory (RAEL) at UC Berkeley. He is also a producer of the Berkeley Groks Science Show.Labels: alternative energy, biofuels, cellulosic ethanol, clean energy, cleantech, Cleantech Blog, energy, green, green tech, greentech, water
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Blogroll Review: Bottles, Biobutanol, Bagasse
by Frank LingDIY Solar Water HeaterThe Chinese have done it again. In a country that puts waste to good use, they have found another use for beer bottles: solar water heating.
Matt James writes about a Chinese farmer who made his own solar heater in the
EcoGeek blog:
"...we get the story of a man who made his family a solar hot water heater from 66 recycled beer bottles. He should have called, I could have helped him empty the bottles."
In this setup, 66 bottles were linked by hose to collect solar energy from the sun to heat up water. The farmer says this is enough to provide water for all 3 members of his family.
Bottoms up or as the Chinese say "ganpei."
Biobutanol Bust?While ethanol received more attention than any other alcohol out there, it's time to rectify situation. Methanol, which causes blindness, has a bad rap. Propanol is best known as a disinfectant.
But butanol with four carbons could be the next alcohol rock star. Scientists say it is superior fuel to ethanol.
However, it may be years until we see biobutanol pumps along the highways. Robert Rapier at R-squared Energy Blog
argues that biobutanol's time has not come yet. He says:
"Sad to say, but I believe biobutanol is dead. While research will (and should) continue, the process is currently at least 10 years from any sort of commercial feasibility. And I would point out that 'never' falls under the umbrella of 'at least 10 years.'"
One of the problems with biobutanol is the energy intensive process needed to remove water from the product. Nevertheless, companies like DuPont and BP are investing heavily to develop butanol from biological processes.
Bagasse HopeAt the end of the day, ethanol still holds the spotlight. Brazil has now shown how to make ethanol even more competitive. Toward realizing energy returns from the cellulosic components from sugar cane, Dedini SA has developed a process to convert bagasse or leftover can stalk into ethanol.
Jim Fraser at the Energy Blog
explains:
"The technology uses two pretreatment steps to convert bagasse, the lignocellulose-rich byproduct from cane processing, into ethanol: (1) pretreatment of the biomass with organic solvents, and (2) dilute acid hydrolysis. The innovation consists of adding a first stage pretreatment step which allows the diluted acids to do their work much faster and more efficiently. The liquid hydrolyzates are then easily fermented and distilled into ethanol."
Now if there was only a way to convert Spam into fuel. :)
Frank Ling is a postdoctoral fellow at the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory (RAEL) at UC Berkeley. He is also a producer of the Berkeley Groks Science Show.Labels: alternative energy, biobutanol, biofuels, cleantech, Cleantech Blog, energy, ethanol, green, green building, green tech, greentech, solar heating
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