Cleantech to “Backtrack” in 2013?

Our firm, Kachan & Co., has just published its latest annual set of predictions for the cleantech sector for the year ahead.

To our analysis, 2013 is shaping up to be something of a year of backtracking for the cleantech industry, a year that calls into question some of its traditional leading indicators of health, and one that surfaces long term risk to such cleantech stalwarts as solar, wind and electric vehicles.

Do we think cleantech is finished? Not at all. But much like young Skywalker learned in Episode V, cleantech is about to find out that the Empire sometimes gets its revenge.

In brief, (click here for long version) our predictions include:

Cleantech venture investment to decline –  Expect worldwide cleantech venture capital investment in 2013 to decline even further than it did in 2012, never to return to the previous highs it achieved before the financial crisis of 2007-2008, we believe. Among the factors: the departure of many venture investors from the sector because of disappointing returns, poor policy support worldwide and a lag time in the pullback of equity and debt investment.

But this doesn’t mean the sky is falling in cleantech. Family offices, sovereign wealth and corporate capital are now having more significant roles, filling gaps where traditional VC has played in recent years. It’s a sign the sector has matured, we believe. Fewer VC cooks in the kitchen may indeed impede innovation, but deep pocketed corporate capital should help clean technologies that are already de-risked reach more meaningful levels of scale.

Long term risk emerges for solar and wind – The solar and wind markets suffer today from margin erosion, allegations of corruption, international trade impropriety and other challenges. In 2013, we think poor progress in grid-scale power storage technology will also start to put downward pressure on solar and wind growth figures. Prices per kilowatt hour are falling, yes, but the cost of flow batteries, molten salt, compressed air, pumped hydro, moving mass or other storage technology needs to be factored in to make intermittent clean energies reliable and available 24/7. When also considering continued progress in cleaner baseload power from new, emerging nuclear technologies, natural gas and cleaner coal power, the growth rates for solar and wind appear increasingly at risk.

Clean coal technologies gain respect – We predict 2013 will be the year a new set of technologies will emerge aimed at capturing particulate and CO2 emissions from coal fired power plants and help clean coal technologies begin to overcome their negative positioning. The barrier to capturing coal emissions has been cost and power plant output penalties. Our research has identified encouraging new technologies without such drawbacks, and we think the world will begin to see them in 2013. China is expected to target domination of the clean coal equipment market, like it does already in many other cleantech equipment categories.

The internal combustion engine strikes back, putting EVs at risk – Important innovations quietly taking place in internal combustion engines (ICE) could further delay the timing of an all-electric vehicle future, we think. In 2013, unheard-of fuel economy innovations in ICEs will enter the market, including novel new natural gas conversion and heat exchange retrofits of existing engines aimed at dramatically lessening fuel needs. Some of these technologies, when combined, claim to be able to reduce fuel costs by 90%. That could push out the timing of EV adoption.

Cleantech adoption in mining – Notoriously conservative mining companies and their shareholders are starting to realize that the capital expenses of new clean technologies can be offset by reduced operating costs and the potential for new revenues. In 2013, we predict more adoption of cleantech innovation in mining, in areas such as tailings remediation, membrane-based water purification, sensors and telematics, route optimization software intended to lower fuel and equipment maintenance costs, and low water and power hydrometallurgical and other novel processes for mineral separation.

Big ag steps up and cleans up – We estimate that 2013 will be the year the world’s leading agricultural companies embrace new innovation in significant ways. Expect accelerated corporate investment, strategic partnership and agricultural M&A in 2013, as agricultural leaders race to meet consumer demand for cleaner, greener ways of producing food, having weathered intense consumer GMO-related and other backlash.

Want more rationale & data? Read our predictions for cleantech/greentech in 2013 in their entirety.

Agree? Disagree? Weigh in on our original article here.

BP Oil Spill

Barrons had an interesting take on biofuels from garbage:

I have been following this movement for some time and there does seem to be an extraordinary amount of capital and brainpower going into this space. People talk a lot about ethanol and I am a big of ethanol, mostly because I like the constiuency and channel to market it creates. More importantly, I am big fan of all of the other alternatives such as biofuels to garbage which has big proponents from Waste Management to others and Barrons claims that we might be able to get as much as 600,000 barrels a day of oil equivalent from this source. Not much compared to the almost 20,000,000 barrels a day that we use in the US alone.
Efficiency within existing ICE engines is another area we should focus on:
My friends at BP think that for an extra $4K per car you could reduce fuel usage by 50% within the next 4 years (typical auto planning cycle).
Electric Vehicles are a good choice as well:
For many applications, if you can put together the right financing you can achieve a lower cost per mile than diesel powered delivery vehicles today.
T Boone Pickens and others have talked about Natural Gas. With gas prices so low right now, there is some financial justification for this approach, particularly for heavy trucks — where less incremental infrastructure is required.
What the idea above show is that this will be a tough nut to crack, but on diversification arguments alone we should start the task of moving away from a largely oil based fuel future to one that diversifies away from oil.
Oh and it will be cheap and pay for itself in lower fuel and oil prices!
Jigar Shah
Carbon War Room