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Election Predictions for Cleantech and Carbon in a Post Obama World

At the risk of sounding like I’m flip flopping, here are the top 5 reasons tonight’s election results mean lots of money for cleantech investors (and, unfortunately, my pocket).

1. An Illinois President and Democratic Congress equals good odds for corn ethanol and a Renewable Fuels Standard.
2. Think massive subsidies, loan guarantees and R&D funding for alternative energy (assuming our government has any money left in it’s pocket book).
3. CAFE standards are going up.
4. We can stop worrying about losing the wind and solar tax credits, and maybe get a federal Renewable Portfolio Standard.
5. And finally, strange bedfellows – Think McCain-Lieberman leading the swing votes in the Senate and an Obama led White House delivering our climate change legislation.
Good luck and God bless us all.
Neal Dikeman is a partner at cleantech merchant bank Jane Capital Partners, CEO of Carbonflow, and the Chairman of Cleantech.org.

Climate Change Policy Thoughts, McCain, Palin, Obama, Et al

Those of you that know me know that fighting climate change is an issue near and dear to my heart – and day to day life, since I am currently involved with a start up working on helping to deliver even better transparency and environmental integrity to carbon credits.

So as a small government, energy focused, environmentally conscious, social liberal, fiscal conservative, who has worked in both oil & gas and alternative energy, I had a lot to like about the McCain-Palin ticket. And I’ve stated that and my reasons for it, and gotten ripped for it for an audience on this blog that is commendably and passionately progressive when it comes to these issues, but unfortunately doesn’t always read to the end of the blog articles or do their research before ripping me for being Republican. But one key area I struggled on was where Palin came down on climate change. Luckily for the 182 small government, energy focused, environmentally conscious, social liberal, fiscal conservatives like me left in America, John McCain’s climate change position has apparently rubbed off on her. Like her or not, this is a very good sign for progressives. It means we as a nation are joining the climate change fight no matter who wins the election fight.

To those of you who say we should have signed Kyoto, don’t forget, Obama, GW Bush, Hillary Clinton, and John McCain all agree on this one, multilateral climate change legislation has to include China and India committing to something. (Hillary actually flopped on this topic). And China and India haven’t agreed. The Senate voted something like 98 to 0 during the Clinton years saying no to Kyoto if China didn’t agree to caps.

The main difference between US politicians has been the willingness of every one on this list except Bush to work to push through some sort of cap and trade in the US – independent of a multilateral framework like Kyoto. McCain has been pretty lock step with the Democrats on this one. And then smaller differences emerge in their approach to tough the caps should be, and whether the profits from trading ought to go into the government coffers as a new (Iraq war size massive) tax, or back to industry to fund future abatements. Of those, Obama talks the toughest game, but McCain is the only one who has ever tried.

The problem with a unilateral approach to cap and trade is that it’s about like going into Iraq unilaterally – it’s a bad a idea. Carbon is a global problem, and lots of separate policies aren’t likely to solve it without significant economic collateral damage. And worse, with cap and trade or taxes, if we try to have separate markets or tax schemes, it means we likely get a different price of carbon in California than in Texas than in China, than in Europe. And if there is no way to equalize the price by trading credits in linked markets, the only route left for industry is to shift production out of the country with the highest price, or lose out to competitors from those markets with lower prices. If the markets aren’t linked (which Obama supports in small amounts and McCain in medium amounts), we will definitely see these geographical price differentials. Then industry will respond by shifting production to China and India, whether it’s overt or not, they won’t have a choice. The power of the consumer dollar will force it to some degree. And the tighter the US carbon legislation is compared to the Kyoto, the bigger incentive to shift production overseas. Hence Obama’s position on 80% auctions for very rapidly implemented, very tight caps results in a large tax windfall to the US government, and a correspondingly large effective price differential on the price of carbon from the US to Europe even, let alone the US to China which still has caps. Where as McCain-Lieberman’s slower and lighter (but still much faster and tighter than Kyoto) plan with explicit links to Kyoto markets, would result in more moderate price differentials. If the markets are linked (meaning you can buy Chinese credits to meet California demands), but the local carbon regulations are tighter, industry has less of a need to shift production ourseas, but can instead cans sometimes shift it’s carbon purchases overseas instead of labor or other materials, but instead we would still see an increased trade imbalance as dollars flow to China to pay for the carbon.

Basically, if the US cap and trade is tighter than foreign cap and trade, either manufacturing has to go off shore, or if the markets are linked and you can buy carbon offshore, then either dollars could go offshore for carbon to keep jobs and production home. That’s why the big push for multilateral climate change, carbon trading markets, and environmental regulation that moves in lockstep with our biggest trading partners.

Hey wait, does that mean that the Democratic position on climate change will actually exacerbate outsourcing to Asia and trade imbalances even MORE than the Republican position this time? ‘Fraid so. The thing I like about McCain on climate change, is that despite getting a bad rap on economics, he’s the only candidate who’s bothered to include the impact on you and I into the complex calculus of climate change legislation.

It’s a catch-22 with no real way out, and a lot of bad options. The worst option however, is doing nothing. Luckily, with Palin now toeing McCain’s line on climate change. That option may finally be off the table.

The Shiny Copper Penny Plan for Energy and Cleantech

I wrote a piece last week arguing that McCain / Palin was my energy/cleantech dream ticket, and promptly got slammed by my readers on the left (who generally think McCain’s plans for the environment /cleantech investing are nowhere near aggressive enough and that Palin is way too conservative), AND friends on the right (who think that Palin is anti-Big Oil). There were more of the former than the latter since Cleantech Blog has been more of a progressive voice than anything else. I think I have published all the comments that came through on the blog (though not the emails), even those ripping me to shreds.

But pretty much everyone agreed I was crackers for one reason or another. So of course I’ve expanded the discussion, and am opening the floor to you. I am looking for comments that reflect at least one pro AND con for each candidate as the best candidate for energy / cleantech. Comments that only offer pros on one side or the other will be sent straight to the trash can.

Here’s mine to get you started – and while you’ll see my opinion come straight through, attached are the reasons behind it:

Barack Obama – Dubbed the Shiny Copper Penny Plan

His environmental and energy issues page

His stated plan’s objectives (editor’s notes in [brackets])

“Provide short-term relief to American families facing pain at the pump [How, by raising taxes elsewhere to subsidize energy and thereby support increased demand but oppose any increase in domestic production? Our gas prices are already way lower than Europe’s. The best policy I’ve seen to reduce gas prices is corn ethanol, yes the much maligned corn ethanol, which has reduced prices at the pump $0.29 to $0.40 / gallon. That plus CAFE plus domestic drilling, and we may have a viable answer. The real short term answer to high gas prices is break the back of OPEC as a cartel, but NOBODY wants to go there.]

Help create five million new jobs by strategically investing $150 billion over the next ten years to catalyze private efforts to build a clean energy future. [Despite the fact that this would likely make me quite rich (I have significant interests in several companies that could milk the hell out of this), I’m not really interested in massive increases in government spending. And let’s be clear, Presidents do not create jobs, you and I do. Oh, and Barack wants to get the US government into the venture capital business in cleantech. On what planet is THAT a good idea?]

Within 10 years save more oil than we currently import from the Middle East and Venezuela combined. [We don’t import a lot of our oil from the Middle East, it’s too far away, we get a large chunk of ours from Mexico and Canada :)].

Put 1 million Plug-In Hybrid cars — cars that can get up to 150 miles per gallon — on the road by 2015, cars that we will work to make sure are built here in America. [I’m a big fan of PHEVs, but right now the technology is just not there yet, despite all my electric car friends. This is definitely a shiny copper penny. I would rather focus on CAFE, car size, and biofuels.]

Ensure 10 percent of our electricity comes from renewable sources by 2012, and 25 percent by 2025. [2012 is just around the corner in energy terms, virtually nothing the next President can do would really change our trajectory here. 25 x 25 is a good goal, and probably his best energy plank in my opnion, but he’s short on the details of how to actually achieve it, even at astronomical energy price increases. One main challenge is that to accomplish this, we need more clean baseload (coal, gas, nuke or hydro) to underpin it and lots and lots and lots of new transmission lines – which are 7 to 10 year projects in of themselves. And of course, it depends on what you mean by renewable, right now every state in the US defines it differently.]

Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050. [I’m very pro cap and trade, but Obama’s plan is the high cost, unilateral way to do it, resulting in the most revenues to the government. The other issue here (which McCain will also face), is that even reducing the US impact on CO2 emissions is pretty much lost in the wash if China and India et al don’t commit to some sort of reductions (And of course if we do and they don’t the net effect is to push manufacturing jobs overseas. THAT is why neither the US Senate, the Clinton administration nor the Bush Administration, Barack Obama or John McCain has supported ratifying Kyoto (Hillary used to, then flipped once she figured it out))]”

The Pro

  • Clearly the most aggressively stated energy and environmental plan – if you like all green with costs taking a back seat, Obama is the way to go. But it’s very hard to conceive of cheap energy and aggressive switchs to alternatives.
  • Supports most aggressive climate change proposals out there – would definitely put us in the lead in solving the climate change problem – if you believe that us solving our part of the problem internally is more important than the world working to solve it together.
  • Supports long term not short term incentives for alternatives in general (as does McCain)
  • Would likely spend mega bucks on new energy techology spending and subsidies – great for me personally, bad for you and the country in the near term, possibly good for the country in the long term.

The Con

  • Very limited resume of actually authoring any legislation on energy or the environment
  • No experience in domestic energy policy
  • Anti- drilling (or was until he realized that like two-thirds of Americans support it)
  • Supports climate change plan that would represent a wealth transfer from the central US to the coasts and result in a several hundred billion dollar per year new tax on energy (that’s on the order of the Iraq war size)
  • Picked a VP with no real energy experience
  • Seems to have little respect for the cost of his energy plan to you and I – read Jimmy Carter all over again?

John McCain – Steady Wins the Race

John McCain’s energy page. His stated plan’s objectives (editor’s notes in [brackets])

  • “Expanding Domestic Oil And Natural Gas Exploration And Production – John McCain Will Commit Our Country To Expanding Domestic Oil Exploration. John McCain Believes In Promoting And Expanding The Use Of Our Domestic Supplies Of Natural Gas. [You may not like it, but most Americans do, and underpinning domestic supplies should be a part of every energy policy discussion. Tax the output at the pump if you want, but this country was built on cheap domestic energy, never forget that.]
  • Taking Action Now To Break Our Dependency On Foreign Oil By Reforming Our Transportation Sector – The Nation Cannot Reduce Its Dependency On Oil Unless We Change How We Power Our Transportation Sector. John McCain’s Clean Car Challenge. John McCain Will Propose A $300 Million Prize To Improve Battery Technology For Full Commercial Development Of Plug-In Hybrid And Fully Electric Automobiles. John McCain Supports Flex-Fuel Vehicles (FFVs) And Believes They Should Play A Greater Role In Our Transportation Sector. John McCain Believes Alcohol-Based Fuels Hold Great Promise As Both An Alternative To Gasoline And As A Means of Expanding Consumers’ Choices.Today, Isolationist Tariffs And Wasteful Special Interest Subsidies Are Not Moving Us Toward An Energy Solution. John McCain Will Effectively Enforce Existing CAFE Standards. [I hate prizes. The government shouldn’t be in the l0ttery business, but battery technology IS the ultimate force multiplier in energy and transport. Flex fuel, should be a basic requirement. See above on ethanol’s impact on prices already. CAFE standards, here is our near term transport lynchpin, I’d like to see McCain stronger on this.]
  • Investing In Clean, Alternative Sources Of Energy – John McCain Believes That The U.S. Must Become A Leader In A New International Green Economy. John McCain Will Commit $2 Billion Annually To Advancing Clean Coal Technologies. John McCain Will Put His Administration On Track To Construct 45 New Nuclear Power Plants By 2030 With The Ultimate Goal Of Eventually Constructing 100 New Plants. John McCain Will Establish A Permanent Tax Credit Equal To 10 Percent Of Wages Spent On R&D. John McCain Will Encourage The Market For Alternative, Low Carbon Fuels Such As Wind, Hydro And Solar Power. [Long term R&D tax credit, finally! This is part of a policy that has helped Australia punch outside it’s weight in technology for years. Nukes + clean coal, we may not like it, but it HAS to be done to baseload all those new renewables. Obama will figure this out, eventually.]
  • Protecting Our Environment And Addressing Climate Change: A Sound Energy Strategy Must Include A Solid Environmental Foundation – John McCain Proposes A Cap-And-Trade System That Would Set Limits On Greenhouse Gas Emissions While Encouraging The Development Of Low-Cost Compliance Options. Greenhouse Gas Emission Targets And Timetables: 2012: Return Emissions To 2005 Levels (18 Percent Above 1990 Levels)2020: Return Emissions To 1990 Levels (15 Percent Below 2005 Levels) 2030: 22 Percent Below 1990 Levels (34 Percent Below 2005 Levels) 2050: 60 Percent Below 1990 Levels (66 Percent Below 2005 Levels). The Cap-And-Trade System Would Allow For The Gradual Reduction Of Emissions. [See below, the most practical multi-lateral plan yet devised in the US]
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency John McCain Will Make Greening The Federal Government A Priority Of His Administration. John McCain Will Move The United States Toward Electricity Grid And Metering Improvements To Save Energy. [Investing in the smart grid and smart metering, now there’s an interstate highway style policy I can support. Smart grid is THE key to underpinning a generational shift in our power use or EV fleets. It’s our electric power sine qua non – without which there is nothing]”

The Pro

  • His energy plan is balanced, focuses on the force multiplier’s like R&D tax credits, batteries, and smart grid, and cleaning up cheap domestic resources like gas, coal, nuke, and ethanol, not the shiny copper pennies like a US Venture Capital Fund, PHEVs, and cool sounding names like 25×25.
  • Only candidate to actually author a climate change bill. It gets dinged for not being aggressive enough, but it is MORE aggressive than Kyoto, and probably the most reasonably practical one that’s come through Congress.
  • Picked a VP with lots of domestic energy experience (The state of Alaska is basically an oil company) who while pro drilling is not pro Big Oil.

Con

  • Legislative record on environmental protection issues is generally considered spotty. I’d like to see more balance here.
  • Hasn’t pushed CAFE like I’d like.
  • I’d like to see explicit support for a 10 year PTC (Obama supports a 5 year one)
  • Depending on your position, pro nuclear (which is a very climate change friendly answer, by the way), but often viewed as anti environmental.

So sorry folks, I think McCain’s energy and environmental plan is as spot on as any presidential candidate in a long time. Yes his record on the environment is “spotty”, but energy and environment always involve tradeoffs with economic and technological reality, and I think any balanced plan will look spotty to some.

My rationale for McCain getting the crown on energy and cleantech, because it’s real and focuses on the long term force multipliers that will keep us competitive, clean and safe in the most economic manner, not Obama’s shiny copper penny plan.

In full disclosure for those of you who don’t know me, of my two largest clients, one is an oil company, and the other is an all renewable power company. I have been helping them develop their solar and low carbon strategies and businesses. I have founded cleantech startups myself in superconductors and carbon, and stand to see more financial benefit from Obama’s plan than McCain’s. But that doesn’t make it right.

Neal Dikeman is a founding partner at Jane Capital Partners LLC, a boutique merchant bank advising strategic investors and startups in cleantech. He is founding contributor of Cleantech Blog, a Contributing Editor to Alt Energy Stocks, Chairman of Cleantech.org.

McCain-Palin is the Energy / Cleantech Dream Ticket

John McCain picked first term Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska as his veep choice today. I love this pick.

She’s a 44 yer old first term, youngest and first, woman Governor of Alaska. She’s known as a maverick and anti-establishment in Alaska, and has taken on Republicans and the oil industry over ethics and pork. She beat two longtime Alaskan political heavyweights to win the Governorship. She’s a fiscal conservative, anti pork, pro drilling, and pro Alaskan gas pipeline. She used to be on Alaska’s oil & gas commission, and is a progressive on climate change. Her bio from Wikipedia. So what does the choice of Palin mean for McCain’s climate change and alternative energy focused energy policy?

In some ways she and John McCain make an energy /cleantech dream ticket. He has made his reputation in energy around proposed legislation like the McCain-Lieberman climate change bill, the most well thought out climate change bill yet proposed in the US. He’s got an energy plan hinging on domestic drilling, transport fuel switching, alternative energy expansion in power, progressive climate change policy and energy efficiency. More progressive on energy and environment than any Republican in history.

And he’s adding a climate change progressive domestic energy expert to the ticket. Not a bad combo for cleantech.

Neal Dikeman is a founding partner at Jane Capital Partners LLC, a boutique merchant bank advising strategic investors and startups in cleantech. He is the founding CEO of Carbonflow, founding contributor of Cleantech Blog, a Contributing Editor to Alt Energy Stocks, Chairman of Cleantech.org, and a blogger for CNET’s Greentech blog.

Cap-and-Trade Gold in the Golden State

By John Addison (7/2/08). Obama and McCain have both stated that climate change requires decisive action. Both support cap-and-trade, putting a limit (cap) on greenhouse gases and enabling the market to work by allowing the trading of permits.

How would this work in the United States? We will all learn from California’s progress with its enacted law – AB32 Climate Solutions Act. The implementation is detailed in the 93-page Climate Change Draft Scoping Plan.

By requiring in law a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, California has set the stage for its transition to a clean energy future.

Since the law was enacted in 2006, the lead implementing agency, the California Air Resources Board (ARB), has been getting an earful from everyone from concerned citizens to industry lobbyists. It moves forward publishing data from the California Climate Action Registry, facilitating 12 major action teams, conducting public workgroups, and drafting plans which get more feedback in public meetings. The ARB Board will next meet to review the proposed Scoping Plan on Novembers 20 and 21.

Climate change is already impacting everything in California from draughts that cause agricultural loses to water shortages that impact industry. But instead of seeing the glass as half empty, the California Plan states, “This challenge also presents a magnificent opportunity to transform California’s economy into one that runs on clean and sustainable technologies, so that all Californians are able to enjoy their rights to clean air, clean water, and a healthy and safe environment.” Cleantech will be a major winner.

The plan is ambitious because California’s population in 2020 is forecasted to be double the 1990 level. The Climate Solutions Act will require that per capita CO2e emissions be reduced from today’s 14 tons per year to 10 tons per day by 2020. The total state cap for 2020 is 427 MMTCO2e. Keys to success will include:

  • Green buildings with improved construction, insullation, energy efficient lighting, HVAC, equipment, and appliances.
  • Electric utilities that use at least 33 percent renewable energy.
  • Development of a California cap-and-trade program that links with other western states and Canadians provinces to create a regional market system.
  • Implementation of existing State laws and policies, including California’s clean vehicle standards, goods movement measures, and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard.

The Plan shows that California has learned from the Kyoto implementation. California’s scope is much broader, covering 85 percent of the State’s greenhouse gas emissions from six greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and perfluorocarbons (PFCs). AB32 calls for incremental improvements all the way to 2050.

The transportation sector – largely the cars and trucks – is the largest contributor with 38 percent of the state’s total greenhouse gas emissions. Electricity generation is 23 percent. Industry 20 percent. Commercial and residential buildings are 9 percent.

Look for economic growth in a number of areas. New buildings will increasingly be LEED certified, often at the Silver level. Building efficiency retrofits will be an active area employing contracts large and small.

Distributed power generation will grow. Combined heat and power will be actively deployed. Process efficiency will continue.

Renewable energy will experience strong growth including wind, solar, geothermal, and bioenergy. Ocean power pilot projects will continue. Controversial new power from nuclear and petroleum coke gasification with CSS will be considered. In-state coal power generation is history in California. Using out-of-state coal power will continue to decline as GHG emissions are priced into the equation.

Wind continues to grow in California and the nation. A fascinating read is the Department of Energy (DOE) report, entitled 20 Percent Wind Energy by 2030, which identifies the real feasibility of the United States reaching meeting 20 percent of its energy requirements from wind by 2030. A path to over 300 GW of wind power by 2030 is detailed.

California and much of the nation is blessed with an abundance of sunlight. The Utility Solar Assessment (USA) Study, produced by Clean Edge and Co-op America, provides a comprehensive roadmap for utilities, solar companies, and regulators to reach 10% solar in the U.S. by 2025 with both PV and CSP.

C02 costs are not likely to significantly increase the cost of fuel, but rocketing oil costs have changed the game. Use of corporate flexible work programs, commuting, and use of public transportation are now at record levels in the state and will grow in popularity.

California High-Speed Rail (HSR) is likely to be on the California ballot this November, with a price tag that will be a fraction of the cost of expanding highways and adding an airport. HSR would link major transit systems throughout the state, and save billions in fuel costs and emissions.

AB32 is also likely to reach its goals because cars will increasingly outsell SUVs and trucks in California. By 2020, electric cars and plug-in hybrids may experience and explosion of popularity. New low-carbon fuels are likely to be widely used.

California is working closely with six other states and three Canadian provinces in the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) to design a regional greenhouse gas emission reduction program that includes a cap-and-trade approach. ARB will develop a cap-and-trade program for California that will link with the programs in the other partner states and provinces to create this western regional market. California’s participation in WCI creates an opportunity to provide substantially greater reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from throughout the region than could be achieved by California alone. AB32 may give the United States a head-start in its own cap-and-trade program.

John Addison publishes the Clean Fleet Report.

Super Tuesday was Super for US Carbon Cap and Trade

One things for sure, post Super Tuesday with Governor Mike Huckabee far behind, Mitt Romney out, and McCain the all but crowned Republican nominee, the US is getting a cap and trade system for carbon. The question is which one. I thought I’d track a little of the candidates’ various positions.

The major differences that are left between the parties are on how to do it. In general the Republicans favor US based systems, the Democrats favor a Kyoto based approach, sort of. The Democrats favor 100% allowance, the Republicans favor a slower adjustment scheme (The Kyoto mechanisms today are actually closer the Republican stance).

Don’t forget, the real reason the US has not ratified Kyoto is less about whether to use the market based mechanisms (we were the ones who actually advocated putting carbon trading in), and more about the fact that under Kyoto, our major economic competitors in China and India have no commitments to reduce greenhouse gases, and under Kyoto effectively receive foreign aid from developed nations to build out their powerplants and infrastructure. And this concern has gotten worse, as China has now passed the US as the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, but has consistently refused to consider its own emissions reductions. So in reality, even if the Democrats win, we may still get a US focused cap and trade system if that is all that can get through the Senate.

But while any candidate election would likely make a US cap and trade a foregone conclusion, unlike McCain who has actually put forward US cap and trade legislation with a Kyoto “linkage”, Hillary and Barack both talk a new treaty and about a G-8 plus major emitters “extra Kyoto” approach that includes China. This sound surprisingly like the approach George W Bush took at the G-8 summit proposing to work within a group of the 15 largest emitters. Not surprisingly, it failed when the Bush Administration refused to sign up to commitments without China and India on the hook, and China still is not interested in signing commitments. Unlike McCain, I’m not sure Barack Obama and Hillary have figured out the details here. But we shall see.

First, the last naysayer.

Mitt Romney

In 2004 Mitt Romney told the Boston Globe he was not sure global warming is happening.

In 2007 on the global warming issue he continued to be anti Kyoto, at least. “As governor, I found that thoughtful environmentalism need not be anti-growth and anti-jobs. But Kyoto-style sweeping mandates, imposed unilaterally in the United States, would kill jobs, depress growth and shift manufacturing to the dirtiest developing nations.” Source

And the Republicans.

Mike Huckabee

Bottom line, likely no Kyoto and but maybe a cap and trade.

Huckabee has come out in support of “economy-wide” cap and trade, in a Bloomberg article on Huckabee’s support for the McCain sponsored bill.

Huckabee adopted the National Governors Association policy:

“not sign or ratify any agreement that mandates new commitments to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions for the US, unless such an agreement mandates new specific scheduled commitments to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions for developing countries within the same compliance period;”

Kyoto was a mistake, but “Earth in the Balance” is not. You do not have to hug a tree to appreciate one. It would have been a mistake to sign the Kyoto Treaty since it would have given foreign nations the power to impose standards on us. But Al Gore was not entirely wrong when he spoke of earth “in the balance.” Balance is exactly what we need more of in this discussion. All of us need to have a healthy respect for our resources, a responsible level of use of those resources, and a comprehensive plan for either preserving or renewing those resources. Source: From Hope to Higher Ground, by Mike Huckabee, p. 70 Jan 4, 2007 Source

John McCain

A keen proponent of market based environmental solutions, and anti tax to boot. He is heavily in favor of cap and trade, and as coathor of the McCain-Lieberman Senate bill backing a US cap and trade is the only candidate who has actually been doing anything about it. But he has not necessarily supported ratifying Kyoto without Chinese participation like Hillary Clinton (her husband was the one who signed it originally) used to advocate.

Among other things McCain-Lieberman calls for cap and trade, with the amount of allowances to be determined in the future, up to 15% of allowances permitted from other systems (like Kyoto’s CDM mechanism), and an enforcement penalty of 300% of the per ton market price for companies over their cap. A good summary has been done by the Pew Center, as well as a comparison with other climate change legislation.

In 2003 he did a good LA Times Op Ed piece defending cap and trade as a solution to global warming.

In a further interview he reaffirmed his belief that market based environmental solutions will work.

“Is your party where it needs to be on global warming yet?

Sen. McCain: It varies in my party, so I can’t say “my party.” But where I think our party needs to be is to be more involved in market-based economically beneficial green technologies which will then reduce greenhouse-gas emissions.In other words, Lieberman’s and my cap-and-trade proposal is market based. General Electric, the world’s largest corporation believes they’re going to make profits off of green technologies. I was just out at the port of Los Angeles with Schwarzenegger and BP is going to sequester carbon and take some offshoot materials and convert them into some kind of fuel, as I understand it. That’s going to be beneficial to BP to do that; in other words, it’s economically profitable to do these things.

Ponnuru: One of the stumbling blocks people sometimes have is that they look at these proposals to deal with the problem and they seem, not the ones you’re talking about but some of these other ones, incredibly draconian, like Kyoto, and then you look at the pay-off and it’ll solve 0.7 percent of the problem. Is the problem so enormous that these kinds of measures can’t really get you very far?

Sen. McCain: [They can] if they’re market-based. If business and industry sees a way to make money and get returns to their stock holders, then they’re going to move in that direction. And I really believe that again, this cap and trading thing, which is still being sorted out a bit in Europe, is a good market-based approach to it. And again, carbon sequestration is fine, all of these things are fine, but if you want an immediate impact on reduction of greenhouse gases then start building nuclear power plants. And I’m not saying that’s the only answer but I think it’s a significant part of the answer.”

McCain has adopted the Republican Main Street Partnership issue stance:

“The Republican Main Street Partnership supports the goal of immediate, near-term reductions in greenhouse gases, and would move toward this goal by providing strong incentives that have minimal adverse impact on the economy, and to continue to apply our best scientific minds to developing a better understanding of the long-term nature of climate change and the means to cope with it.

Two objectives should be accomplished:

create an “early action crediting system” to provide assurances to companies that actions taken now to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases will be recognized and credited in the eventual system of emissions reductions standards that will be developed; and

commit the necessary resources to national and international scientific efforts to better understand the cause and effect of global climate change.

With regard to global warming, the Republican Main Street Partnership recognizes that a longer debate over the proper U.S. role in implementing the Kyoto Protocol should and will occur. In so doing, we hope to bolster our scientific understanding of the problem and perhaps, in turn, provide immediate incentives for communities and corporations to act in their own and the nation’s best interests in reducing emissions. We are strongly committed to acting on the emerging consensus for progress and constructive change, and maintaining America’s ability to lead the world in the critical area of environmental protection. Source: Republican Main Street Partnership Issue Paper: Environment 98-RMSP2 on Sep 9, 1998″

Ron Paul

A strong environmentalist and free market libertarian, who opposes the Iraq war, Kyoto, and energy company subsidies for all the same reasons, for one, the constitution does not permit it, two, it is the job of the private sector, not government. Despite being the only non cap and trade Republican left in the mix, I always find it hard to disagree with Ron Paul. He and I are kindred spirits when it comes to small government.

Ron Paul on the environment:

“The federal government has proven itself untrustworthy with environmental policy by facilitating polluters, subsidizing logging in the National Forests, and instituting one-size-fits-all approaches that too often discriminate against those they are intended to help.

The key to sound environmental policy is respect for private property rights. The strict enforcement of property rights corrects environmental wrongs while increasing the cost of polluting.

In a free market, no one is allowed to pollute his neighbor’s land, air, or water. If your property is being damaged, you have every right to sue the polluter, and government should protect that right. After paying damages, the polluter’s production and sale costs rise, making it unprofitable to continue doing business the same way. Currently, preemptive regulations and pay-to-pollute schemes favor those wealthy enough to perform the regulatory tap dance, while those who own the polluted land rarely receive a quick or just resolution to their problems.

In Congress, I have followed a constitutional approach to environmental action:

  • I consistently vote against using tax dollars to subsidize logging in National Forests.
  • I am a co-sponsor of legislation designed to encourage the development of alternative and sustainable energy. H.R. 550 extends the investment tax credit to solar energy property and qualified fuel cell property, and H.R. 1772 provides tax credits for the installation of wind energy property.
  • Taxpayers for Common Sense named me a “Treasury Guardian” for my work against environmentally-harmful government spending and corporate welfare.
  • I am a member of the Congressional Green Scissors Coalition, a bipartisan caucus devoted to ending taxpayer subsidies of projects that harm the environment for the benefit of special interests.

Individuals, businesses, localities, and states must be free to negotiate environmental standards. Those who depend on the land for their health and livelihood have the greatest incentive to be responsible stewards.”

From an interview with Grist:

“What, if anything, do you think the government should do about global warming?
They should enforce the principles of private property so that we don’t emit poisons and contribute to it. And, if other countries are doing it, we should do our best to try to talk them out of doing what might be harmful. We can’t use our army to go to China and dictate to China about the pollution that they may be contributing. You can only use persuasion.

You have voiced strong opposition to the Kyoto Protocol. Can you see supporting a different kind of international treaty to address global warming?

It would all depend. I think negotiation and talk and persuasion are worthwhile, but treaties that have law enforcement agencies that force certain countries to do things, I don’t think that would work.

You believe that ultimately private interests will solve global warming?
I think they’re more capable of it than politicians.

What’s your position on a carbon tax?
I don’t like that. That’s sort of legalizing pollution. If it’s wrong, you can buy these permits, so to speak. It’s wrong to do it, it shouldn’t be allowed.”

Then the Democrats.

Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton has previously stated she would ratify Kyoto (though has discussed “fixing” it first), and has come out in favor of aggressive cap and trade systems. It is a little hard to understand how she will reconcile her stated desire for environmental protection as a key part of trade policy, and a Kyoto protocol that places no emissions reduction commitments on major US trading partners like China and India. The short answer may be she has backed off Kyoto, focused on cap and trade and a new treaty for Kyoto.

The Hillary Clinton global warming agenda from her website:

“Hillary’s plan to promote energy independence, address global warming, and transform our economy includes:

A new cap-and-trade program that auctions 100 percent of permits alongside investments to move us on the path towards energy independence;

A requirement that all publicly traded companies report financial risks due to climate change in annual reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission”

Her previous statements were very strongly pro Kyoto. “As Senator, I will work for New York to get its fair share of federal mass transit funds and to increase the amount of money that goes to transit funds. And, I will vote to ratify the Kyoto Protocol to bring all nations together to address global warming and build a better future for us all. Source: www.hillary2000.org, “Environment” Sep 9, 2000″

But recently she has started hedging a bit, talking about the flaws of Kyoto. “I will start by reigniting our international involvement. We cannot sit here, in the United Sates and expect to deal with global warming if we do not cooperate with other countries. Getting back into process, you know when President Bush took us out of Kyoto, I regretted that but he had an opportunity to start his own process, he didn’t want to do Kyoto, do something else. Reach out to India and China they have to be part of this. One of the flaws of the Kyoto process was I don’t think people anticipated, even in the early 90s how quickly China and India would grow. China is now growing at 12 percent a year. They are the second highest user of energy but they are now the highest emitter of green house gases in the world. India is not far behind. We have got to get a new international process.” “Energy and Environment: Speech on the Green Building Fund,” Hillary Clinton’s official candidate website, July 24, 2007

And further here.

“The President’s failed unilateral energy policy is a part of our failed unilateral foreign policy. It’s deprived us of the credibility and the leverage we need to solve the climate crisis. I’ll change that by leading the process to develop a new treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which is set to expire in 2012. One of the worst messages the President sent was when he took office and rejected completely Kyoto. He could have said we don’t like Kyoto but we’re immediately starting a new process. But that didn’t happen. Well, come January 2009, I’m sending a different message. I want to act quickly to help develop a new treaty. I will engage in high level meetings with leaders around the world every three months, if that’s what it takes to hammer out a new agreement. My goal will be to secure a deal by 2010. We can’t wait for two more years. I will establish an E8 that’s modeled on the G8 which is where the big industrial economies come together. We need the world’s major carbon-emitting nations to come together to tackle these challenges.”

Barack Obama

As aggressive a global warming activist as you will find in the election, he is actually more Republican on his global warming position that he looks. He like Hillary, favors cap and trade, technology investment, and a 100 percent auction for allowances. But with his extra-Kyoto Global Energy Forum and a noncommital “re-engage” Kyoto strategy, like Hillary he does not appear to have worked out the details.

The Obama statements:

“Restore U.S. Leadership on Climate Change

Create New Forum of Largest Greenhouse Gas Emitters: Obama will create a Global Energy Forum — that includes all G-8 members plus Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa –the largest energy consuming nations from both the developed and developing world. The forum would focus exclusively on global energy and environmental issues.

Re-Engage with the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change: The UNFCCC process is the main international forum dedicated to addressing the climate problem and an Obama administration will work constructively within it. “

“Reduce carbon emissions by 80% by 2050

Cap and Trade: Obama supports implementation of a market-based cap-and-trade system to reduce carbon emissions by the amount scientists say is necessary: 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. Obama’s cap-and-trade system will require all pollution credits to be auctioned. A 100% auction ensures that all polluters pay for every ton of emissions they release, rather than giving these emission rights away to coal and oil companies. Some of the revenue generated by auctioning allowances will be used to support the development of clean energy, to invest in energy efficiency improvements, and to address transition costs, including helping American workers affected by this economic transition.

Confront Deforestation and Promote Carbon Sequestration: Obama will develop domestic incentives that reward forest owners, farmers, and ranchers when they plant trees, restore grasslands, or undertake farming practices that capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Source: Campaign booklet, “Blueprint for Change”, p. 24-27 Feb 2, 2008″ Source

“Q: What do you think the toughest choice you have left to make is? What haven’t you made up your mind on yet? And why haven’t you?
A: The issue of climate change. I’ve put forward one of the most aggressive proposals out there, but the science seems to be coming in indicating it’s accelerating even more quickly with every passing day. And by the time I take office, I think we’re going to have to have a serious conversation about how drastic steps we need to take to address it.
Source: 2007 Democratic radio debate on NPR Dec 4, 2007″ Source

“As president, I will place a cap on carbon emissions and require companies who can’t meet the cap to buy credits from those who can, which will generate billions of dollars to invest in renewable sources of energy and create new jobs and even a new industry in the process. I’ll put in place a low carbon fuel standard that will take 50 million cars worth of pollution off the road. I’ll raise the fuel efficiency standards for our cars and trucks because we know we have the technology to do it and it’s the time to do it.”
Source: Take Back America 2007 Conference Jun 19, 2007

“I proposed a cap-and-trade system, because you can be very specific in terms of how to reduce the greenhouse gases by a particular level. What you have to do is you have to combine it with a 100% auction. Every little bit of pollution sent up into the atmosphere, that polluter is getting charged for it. Not only does that ensure that they don’t game the system, but you’re also generating billions of dollars that can be invested in solar & wind & biodiesel. On a carbon tax, the cost will be passed on to consumers. Under a cap-and-trade, plants are going to have to retrofit their equipment. That’s going to cost money, and they will pass it onto consumers. We have an obligation to use some of the money that we generate to shield low-income and fixed-income individuals from higher electricity prices. We’re also going to have to ask the American people to change how they use energy. Everybody is going to have to change their light bulbs and insulate their homes. It’s a sacrifice that we can meet.”
Source: 2008 Facebook/WMUR-NH Democratic primary debate Jan 6, 2006

So here comes the cap and trade. But the how is still up in the air. In the interests of full disclosure, this is an area I fully believe in, and I am not only involved with at least one business that would likely benefit from a US cap and trade, though also a few businesses that would likely suffer from a cap and trade.

Neal Dikeman is a founding partner at Jane Capital Partners LLC, a boutique merchant bank advising strategic investors and startups in cleantech. He is founding contributor of Cleantech Blog, a Contributing Editor to Alt Energy Stocks, and a blogger for CNET’s Cleantech blog.