By Guest Blogger Charles Waitman
I spent a day at Intersolar North America in San Francisco, considered by some to be North America’s premier exhibition and conference for the solar industry. My career, to date has been in the oil industry. This was my second Intersolar conference. These are my observations.
PV dominated the conference.
Mark Pinto of Applied Materials gave an excellent presentation. He forecasts that innovation will support continued growth in the rate of PV installation. Dr. Pinto forecasts a 20 to 20% growth rate in annual solar installations, with annual installations reaching 250 GW/yr and installed capacity reaching perhaps 800 to 900 GW by 2020. He described total installed cost approaching $4/w today. As an interesting perspective the installed cost of 250 GW, at $4/w, is about one third of worldwide expenditures for oil. Other interesting perspectives, at the level of 800 to 900 GW, PV solar would represent 15% of worldwide generating capacity, 5 or 6% of annual generation, and a little less than 1% of energy use. The US Energy Information Administration’s 2011 forecast (International Energy Outlook 2011) differs sharply from Dr. Pinto’s. EIA forecasts a 16% annual growth rate for solar capacity (16% first derivative vs 20 to 30% second derivative for those of you who love calculus) from 2008 to 2020 with a 2020 capacity of 86 GW. Pinto sees panel costs dropping below $1/watt. Balance of system costs are coming down as well, but the progress here is slow.
I talked briefly with a representative of the EV Group about their non-reflective coatings. The marketing strategy has been increased efficiency. From my perspective the most significant benefit of these coatings might be expedited permitting since glare is a common concern.
I listened to several presentations at the PV Energy World Stage. California Assembly member Skinner and Arthur O’Donnell of the CPUC reported on the California a legislative mandate to introduce storage with as yet unspecified physical requirements in 2015 and 2020. The remaining presentations caused my head to spin thinking about load and generation profiles, distributed vs central generation, smart grid requirement – or perhaps things will just balance out. However, the point that registered clearly in my mind is that $4/w for the installation isn’t the cost of PV in a very large scale and mature setting. Storage, transmission, resources for load balancing, etc. will be big cost centers when we reach the point that PV power from the roof top impacts more than the firing rate of a peaking turbine.
What I didn’t see was discussion of end of life issues for panels and batteries. While these issues are later (as in sooner or later), nickel, cadmium, lithium, magnesium, cobalt, tellurium, indium, selenium shouldn’t accumulate in stockpiles and permiate into the ground and water. Everything has an end of life. Disposal (or hopefully recycle) isn’t exciting, it is often expensive, it is hard to enforce. PV isn’t the first promise of an almost infinite supply of clean energy. Real thinking and robust policy regarding end of life issues should accompany the technological development that is proceeding at such a furious pace.
I am almost in the PV camp (a big deal for an oil industry guy). PV is bigger than I thought, growth is faster than I thought (EIA is also a few years behind), and it will be a major part (as in Coal or Oil or Gas not domestic hot water) of the energy balance. Balancing cost (including changes to the grid, and storage) and environmental impact (end of life) of PV against shale gas (abundant and likely cheap but faces groundwater issues) and combined cycle generation (pretty cheap and pretty clean but still a large source of greenhouse gas) will be no small challenge.
Chuck Waitman has extensive experience, within the oil industry, with synthetic fuels, refining, hydrogen production, cogeneration, energy procurement, energy contracts, and energy conservation. For the last 5 years he has worked on implementation of California AB-32, the California Global Warming Solutions Act. He presently consults on issues related to energy and greenhouse gas management.